Turning the Page on 2008

I had a number of conversations with friends, family and clients over the Christmas holiday about the economy. This year certainly was brutal in terms of the stock market, credit crisis and a myriad of other financial issues. But as we head into 2009, the message I shared in those conversations was that I see the skies clearing.

At Marketicity, we're fortunate to work with business owners and corporate leaders in a wide variety of industries in the St. Louis metropolitan area and Midwest. And based on these interactions, many (and I mean MANY) mid-sized companies are aggressively pursuing their marketing and public relations efforts for 2009. We're seeing loads of work for new Web sites, brochures, identity campaigns, publicity efforts ... you name it.

So if we're so bullish, why are we (the general public) still hearing such bad news about the economy? What's the indication for our hope? Five things come to mind:

1. The challenges of huge companies are finally coming to fruition. These companies had resources to last longer in the downturn than mid-sized or small companies. The smaller or mid-cap companies went through their struggles earlier in 2008 are are already beginning to recover. But who wants to hear about the challenges or successes of small or mid-sized companies? No one. It's not a sexy story for the media. When a huge bank or automaker cracks and crumbles, that's sexy and that's big news. The challenges of large companies -- in my opinion -- are part of the reason why we're not yet hearing about improvements in the economy overall.
2. This storyline (the struggles of large companies) when combined with the pain of the past year has put a tremendous hurt on consumer confidence. I think that's about to change, as well. Why? The upcoming inauguration. In general, the mainstream media loves our country's incoming president. I see the media's admiration for the beginning of his term ready to spill into every storyline they create ... including the economy. That reporting, no matter how you feel about its accuracy or about Mr. Obama, will likely have a positive impact on consumer confidence.
3. Credit is loosening. Banks are beginning to work more with one another and with their clients. They've cleaned up their books. And as one client mentioned to me today, they'll figure out that they're in the business of selling money and that they better get to it. That will help companies crawl out of the economic hole.
4. Fuel prices are incredibly low. This puts money into the pockets of consumers in a variety of ways: their fuel costs decrease, input costs for products they buy decrease and their employers have more money to spend on wages.
5. Interest rates are incredible (if you want to borrow money, that is). Companies that are already on the rebound have the opportunity to aggressively expand as a result of these low rates. And as credit continues to loosen, more and more companies will be able to take advantage of this unique time. In addition, the low rates are the tonic we'll need to crawl out of the real estate glut we're experiencing.

So that's why we're optimistic. Are we looking through rose-colored glasses? Maybe. But I can tell you that our clients are much more aggressive in their plans for the coming year than they were 12 months ago.